Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 0.015305 0.017325 0.019529 0.022115 0.025070 0.028345 0.032257
2024-10-27 0.011600 0.014217 0.017323 0.021291 0.026245 0.032248 0.040106
2024-11-03 0.010224 0.013219 0.016979 0.022072 0.028830 0.037540 0.049703
2024-11-10 0.009192 0.012412 0.016645 0.022661 0.031054 0.042444 0.059234
2024-11-17 0.008384 0.011751 0.016358 0.023181 0.033128 0.047250 0.069087
2024-11-24 0.007491 0.010845 0.015595 0.022891 0.033943 0.050273 0.076620
2024-12-01 0.006777 0.010102 0.014963 0.022677 0.034785 0.053340 0.084478
2024-12-08 0.006183 0.009467 0.014408 0.022494 0.035604 0.056395 0.092587
2024-12-15 0.005844 0.009183 0.014347 0.023048 0.037613 0.061488 0.104573
2024-12-22 0.005380 0.008652 0.013841 0.022821 0.038291 0.064430 0.113178
2024-12-29 0.005166 0.008501 0.013925 0.023566 0.040661 0.070443 0.127866
2025-01-05 0.004686 0.007866 0.013149 0.022759 0.040232 0.071488 0.133536
2025-01-12 0.004325 0.007411 0.012653 0.022417 0.040637 0.074146 0.142721
2025-01-19 0.003923 0.006850 0.011927 0.021596 0.040086 0.074984 0.148485
2025-01-26 0.003808 0.006789 0.012075 0.022388 0.042642 0.081972 0.167462
2025-02-02 0.003674 0.006678 0.012120 0.022986 0.044873 0.088548 0.186407
2025-02-09 0.003540 0.006556 0.012131 0.023514 0.047011 0.095151 0.206243
2025-02-16 0.003313 0.006239 0.011747 0.023219 0.047428 0.098222 0.218618
2025-02-23 0.003115 0.005962 0.011418 0.023003 0.047982 0.101628 0.232172
2025-03-02 0.002937 0.005710 0.011117 0.022816 0.048576 0.105174 0.246493
2025-03-09 0.002853 0.005640 0.011171 0.023379 0.050865 0.112731 0.271501
2025-03-16 0.002694 0.005404 0.010869 0.023148 0.051347 0.116206 0.286807
2025-03-23 0.002642 0.005383 0.011012 0.023905 0.054165 0.125443 0.318104